Tag: hurricane

Surviving the Storm: How to Build a Home That Defies Tornadoes & Hurricanes

Posted on by Collective Weather

Home strength by materials:

  1. Reinforced concrete: Reinforced concrete is one of the most tornado-resistant materials due to its high strength and durability. The combination of concrete and embedded steel reinforcement provides excellent resistance to high winds and flying debris. Walls made of reinforced concrete should be at least 6 inches thick to provide adequate protection.
  2. Steel: Steel is another strong material that can withstand the forces of a tornado. Steel structures, such as shipping containers or specially designed safe rooms, can provide a high level of protection when anchored properly to a concrete foundation.
  3. Brick and masonry: While not as strong as reinforced concrete, brick and masonry structures can still offer some protection during a tornado. However, it’s important to note that unreinforced masonry can be vulnerable to collapse under extreme winds. Reinforced masonry, with steel reinforcements embedded in the mortar joints, provides a higher level of protection.
  4. Wood: Wood structures are the most vulnerable to tornado damage due to their lightweight nature and susceptibility to flying debris. However, wood-framed homes can be strengthened with the use of hurricane clips, anchor bolts, and other connectors that help tie the structure together and improve its overall resistance to wind forces.

Rooms and Structures:

  1. Basements: Basements are one of the safest places to be during a tornado, as they are below ground level and surrounded by earth, which provides natural protection. The basement walls should be made of reinforced concrete or reinforced masonry for optimal protection. If possible, choose a corner of the basement away from windows and exterior walls.
  2. Interior rooms: Small, interior rooms on the lowest floor of a building, such as closets, bathrooms, or hallways, can provide some protection during a tornado. These rooms should be located away from exterior walls and windows. The smaller the room, the better, as it will have less space for potential debris to accumulate.
  3. Bathtubs: If you don’t have access to a basement or a small interior room, a bathtub can provide some protection. Bathtubs are typically made of sturdy materials like cast iron or steel, which can withstand some impact from debris. Lie in the bathtub and cover yourself with a thick blanket or mattress for added protection.
  4. Closets: A small, interior closet can be a good place to seek shelter during a tornado. Choose a closet on the lowest floor, away from exterior walls and windows. The closet should have a strong door frame and hinges to resist wind forces.
  5. Safe rooms: Specially designed safe rooms, built to FEMA guidelines, offer the highest level of protection during a tornado. These rooms are typically constructed with reinforced concrete or steel and are anchored securely to a concrete foundation. The walls, ceiling, and door are designed to withstand extreme wind speeds and flying debris.
  6. Doorways: While it is a common misconception that doorways are safe during a tornado, they do not provide significant protection unless they are part of a specially designed safe room. In fact, doorways can be dangerous due to the potential for flying debris and the lack of structural support in modern homes.

If you’re building a new home, here are some important considerations:

Continuous load path: Ensure that your home’s design incorporates a continuous load path, which means that all structural elements (roof, walls, and foundation) are properly connected to transfer wind forces down to the ground. This can be achieved through the use of metal connectors, anchor bolts, and reinforced concrete.


Impact-resistant windows and doors: Install impact-resistant windows and doors, which are designed to withstand high winds and flying debris. These may include laminated glass, reinforced frames, and sturdy hardware.


Reinforced garage doors: Garage doors are often a weak point in a home’s structure during a tornado. Install reinforced garage doors that are designed to withstand high winds, or consider eliminating the garage altogether and opting for a carport or detached garage.


Hip roof design: A hip roof (slopes on all four sides) is more aerodynamic and resistant to wind forces than a gable roof (slopes on two sides). If possible, incorporate a hip roof design with a 30-45 degree slope to minimize wind uplift forces.


Proper anchoring: Ensure that your home’s foundation is properly anchored to the ground using anchor bolts or other suitable methods. This helps prevent the structure from being lifted or shifted off its foundation during a tornado.


Minimize overhangs and projections: Reduce the size of roof overhangs, balconies, and other projections, as these can be vulnerable to wind forces and provide a pathway for wind to enter the structure.

Properly anchoring the roof to the walls is a critical aspect of creating a continuous load path and ensuring that your home can resist the high wind forces associated with tornadoes. The goal is to create a strong, uninterrupted connection from the roof to the walls and down to the foundation. Here are some recommendations for anchoring the roof to the walls:

  1. Hurricane clips or straps: Use hurricane clips or straps to connect the roof trusses or rafters to the top plate of the exterior walls. These metal connectors are designed to resist uplift forces and prevent the roof from being separated from the walls during high winds. Hurricane clips should be installed according to the manufacturer’s specifications and local building codes.
  2. Continuous roof sheathing: Use continuous roof sheathing, such as plywood or oriented strand board (OSB), to create a solid, uninterrupted surface that can distribute wind forces across the entire roof. The sheathing should be properly fastened to the roof trusses or rafters with ring-shank nails or screws.
  3. Roof-to-wall anchors: In addition to hurricane clips, consider using roof-to-wall anchors, which are heavy-duty metal connectors that tie the roof framing directly to the wall studs. These anchors provide a more robust connection and can further improve the roof’s resistance to uplift forces.
  4. Reinforced roof-to-wall connections: For added strength, consider using reinforced roof-to-wall connections, such as continuous steel straps or cables that run from the roof framing, down the exterior walls, and into the foundation. These continuous ties help transfer wind forces from the roof to the foundation, bypassing the potential weak points at the wall-to-foundation connection.
  5. Proper fastening: Ensure that all connections, including roof sheathing, hurricane clips, and anchors, are fastened using the appropriate fasteners (e.g., ring-shank nails or structural screws) and fastening patterns as specified by the manufacturer and local building codes.
  6. Gable end bracing: If your home has a gable roof, pay special attention to the gable end walls, as these are particularly vulnerable to wind forces. Install gable end bracing, such as diagonal braces or shear walls, to provide additional support and prevent the gable end from collapsing during a tornado.
  7. Professional installation: Have your roof-to-wall connections designed and installed by experienced professionals, such as licensed contractors or structural engineers, to ensure that they meet or exceed the requirements for your area’s wind loads and building codes.

When it comes to surviving a tornado, having a dedicated storm shelter or safe room built to FEMA guidelines is the best option. However, if you don’t have access to a shelter, there are still certain types of rooms, places, home designs, materials, and structures that can increase your chances of survival during a tornado.

  1. Basements: If your home has a basement, it is one of the safest places to be during a tornado. The below-ground location provides added protection from flying debris and the collapse of the structure above. Choose a corner of the basement away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, get under a sturdy piece of furniture like a table or workbench for added protection.
  2. Interior rooms: If you don’t have a basement, seek shelter in a small, interior room on the lowest floor of your home. Closets, bathrooms, and hallways are often good choices, as they are typically located away from exterior walls and have a smaller area that can be more easily reinforced. In a bathroom, the plumbing in the walls can provide additional structural support.
  3. Center of the house: The center of your home is usually the most structurally sound area, as it is furthest from the exterior walls that are more vulnerable to damage from high winds and flying debris.
  4. Rooms with no windows: Windows are weak points in your home’s structure and can easily shatter during a tornado, creating a dangerous situation with flying glass. Choose a room with no windows or the fewest windows possible.
  5. Manufactured homes: Manufactured homes, also known as mobile homes, are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes due to their lightweight construction and lack of a solid foundation. If you live in a manufactured home, it is crucial to have a separate storm shelter or evacuate to a sturdy building before the tornado hits.
  6. Concrete and brick structures: Homes made of concrete or brick are generally more resistant to tornado damage than those made of wood or other lightweight materials. The added weight and strength of these materials can help the structure withstand high winds and flying debris.
  7. Safe rooms: If you don’t have a basement or storm shelter, consider building or installing a safe room in your home. These rooms are specifically designed to withstand extreme winds and flying debris. They can be constructed from reinforced concrete, steel, or other materials and should be anchored securely to a solid foundation.
  8. Helmets and protective covering: Regardless of where you take shelter, protect your head and neck by wearing a helmet, such as a bicycle or motorcycle helmet. Cover your body with thick blankets, sleeping bags, or even a mattress to shield yourself from flying debris.
  9. Avoid certain areas: During a tornado, stay away from exterior walls, doors, and windows. Also, avoid rooms with large spans, such as gymnasiums, auditoriums, or warehouses, as the roof is more likely to collapse in these spaces.
  10. Community shelters: If your home does not have a suitable place to take shelter, familiarize yourself with community shelters in your area. These can include schools, public buildings, or designated storm shelters.

Hurricanes and Climate Change: Is There a Connection?

Posted on by Collective Weather

As the world grapples with the increasingly visible effects of climate change, one question that often arises is whether there is a link between global warming and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. To shed light on this complex issue, we spoke with leading climate scientists and examined the latest research on the subject.

The Basics of Hurricane Formation:
Before going into the potential connection between hurricanes and climate change, it’s key to understand how these powerful storms form. Hurricanes, also known as tropical cyclones, are fueled by warm ocean waters and low wind shear. As warm, moist air rises from the ocean surface, it creates an area of low pressure, which draws in more air from surrounding areas. This process continues, causing the storm to rotate and intensify.

Rising Sea Surface Temperatures:
One of the most significant factors that climate scientists point to when discussing the potential link between hurricanes and climate change is rising sea surface temperatures. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global ocean temperatures have increased by approximately 0.13°F (0.07°C) per decade since 1901. This trend is particularly pronounced in the tropical regions where hurricanes form.

Dr. James Kossin, a climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, explains, “Warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for hurricanes to form and intensify. As the climate continues to warm, we expect to see more instances of rapidly intensifying hurricanes, which can be particularly dangerous because they give coastal communities less time to prepare.”

Increased Water Vapor in the Atmosphere:
Another factor that may contribute to the intensification of hurricanes is the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to global warming. As the Earth’s surface temperatures rise, more water evaporates from the oceans and land, leading to higher humidity levels.

Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, notes, “The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has increased by about 7% since the 1970s, which is consistent with the expected effect of global warming. This extra moisture can fuel more intense hurricanes, as well as lead to heavier rainfall during these events.”

The Debate on Hurricane Frequency:
While there is growing evidence to suggest that climate change may lead to more intense hurricanes, the question of whether global warming is causing an increase in the frequency of these storms is still a topic of debate among climate scientists.

A 2015 study published in the journal Nature Climate Change found that the frequency of global hurricane activity has remained relatively stable since the 1970s. However, the study also noted that the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes—the most intense storms on the Saffir-Simpson scale—has increased significantly during this period.

Dr. Tom Knutson, a research meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, cautions, “While we have not seen a clear trend in the overall frequency of hurricanes, it’s important to recognize that even a small increase in the proportion of the most intense storms can have devastating consequences for coastal communities.”

Recent Hurricane Seasons:
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record, with 30 named storms, 13 of which reached hurricane strength. This season also saw a record-breaking 12 landfalling storms in the United States, causing billions of dollars in damage and claiming dozens of lives.

While it’s difficult to attribute any single hurricane season to climate change, Dr. Kossin points out, “The 2020 season exhibited many of the characteristics we expect to see more of in a warming world, such as rapidly intensifying storms and increased rainfall rates. It’s a reminder that we need to be prepared for more extreme hurricane seasons in the future.”

The Need for Further Research:
Despite the growing body of evidence suggesting a link between climate change and hurricane intensity, climate scientists stress the need for continued research to better understand this complex relationship.

Dr. Emanuel emphasizes, “While we have made significant progress in understanding how global warming may affect hurricanes, there are still many uncertainties. We need to invest in more advanced modeling techniques and observational tools to improve our ability to predict and prepare for these storms.”

Recent hurricanes:

  1. 2023: 8 hurricanes, highest category – Category 5 (Hurricane Lee)
  2. 2022: 8 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Ian)
  3. 2021: 7 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Ida)
  4. 2020: 14 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Iota)
  5. 2019: 3 hurricanes, highest category – Category 5 (Hurricane Dorian)
  6. 2018: 8 hurricanes, highest category – Category 5 (Hurricane Michael)
  7. 2017: 10 hurricanes, highest category – Category 5 (Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria)
  8. 2016: 7 hurricanes, highest category – Category 5 (Hurricane Matthew)
  9. 2015: 4 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Joaquin)
  10. 2014: 6 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Gonzalo)
  11. 2013: 2 hurricanes, highest category – Category 1 (Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Ingrid)

For comparison here’s the 1980s:

  1. 1989: 7 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Hugo)
  2. 1988: 5 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Gilbert)
  3. 1987: 3 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Emily)
  4. 1986: 4 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Bonnie)
  5. 1985: 7 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Gloria)
  6. 1984: 5 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Diana)
  7. 1983: 4 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Alicia)
  8. 1982: 2 hurricanes, highest category – Category 1 (Hurricane Alberto and Hurricane Debby)
  9. 1981: 7 hurricanes, highest category – Category 3 (Hurricane Harvey)
  10. 1980: 9 hurricanes, highest category – Category 4 (Hurricane Allen)

Top 5 Hurricane Myths Debunked

Posted on by Collective Weather

Hurricane Mythbusters: Taping Windows Does NOT Save You

As hurricane season approaches, preparation becomes paramount for those living in vulnerable coastal regions. Amidst the flurry of activity – securing outdoor furniture, stocking up on supplies, and reviewing evacuation plans – a persistent myth continues to circulate: taping windows prevents them from shattering during a hurricane. This well-intentioned practice, however, offers a false sense of security and does little to protect your home from the destructive forces of hurricane-force winds.

The Science Behind Shattering Windows:

Understanding why taping windows is ineffective requires a basic understanding of how hurricane winds impact structures. During a hurricane, intense wind gusts exert immense pressure on the exterior of a building, including windows and doors. When wind speeds reach extreme levels, the pressure differential between the inside and outside of a building can become significant. This pressure difference, rather than the direct force of the wind itself, is often the primary cause of window failure.

Why Tape Fails the Test:

Taping windows, while seemingly logical, does not address the underlying issue of pressure differential. The tape may hold shattered glass fragments together momentarily, but it does little to prevent the initial breakage or the forceful intrusion of wind and debris into the building. Once a window fails, the sudden influx of wind can create a build-up of internal pressure, potentially leading to catastrophic structural damage, including roof failure.

Effective Alternatives for Window Protection:

Instead of relying on the ineffective practice of taping windows, consider these proven methods for enhancing window protection during a hurricane:

  • Hurricane Shutters: Permanent or removable hurricane shutters offer the most robust protection for windows. These shutters are typically made of aluminum or steel and are designed to withstand extreme wind pressures and flying debris.
  • Impact-Resistant Windows: Investing in impact-resistant windows provides a permanent solution for enhanced window protection. These windows are constructed with laminated glass and reinforced frames, significantly reducing the risk of breakage during a storm.
  • Plywood: While not as aesthetically pleasing or convenient as shutters or impact-resistant windows, properly installed plywood can offer a temporary and more affordable alternative. Ensure the plywood is cut to fit each window and securely anchored to the window frame.

Dispelling the Myth, Promoting Safety:

The myth of taping windows as an effective hurricane protection measure persists due to a combination of misinformation and a desire for simple solutions. However, understanding the science behind window failure and the limitations of tape is crucial for making informed decisions about hurricane preparedness

Hurricane Mythbusters: Opening Windows Doesn’t Protect Your Roof

Amidst the flurry of preparations during hurricane season, a common misconception often emerges: opening windows helps equalize pressure and prevents roof damage during a storm. This seemingly logical notion, however, is a dangerous myth that can actually worsen the situation and put your home at greater risk.

Understanding Pressure Dynamics:

To grasp why opening windows is counterproductive, it’s crucial to understand the basic principles of pressure dynamics during a hurricane. As hurricane-force winds batter a building, they create a zone of low pressure outside. If the building is relatively airtight, with windows and doors closed, the pressure inside remains higher. This pressure differential, while still posing a threat to windows and doors, helps to maintain the structural integrity of the roof.

The Perils of Open Windows:

Opening windows during a hurricane disrupts this pressure balance. Instead of equalizing pressure, it allows the strong winds to enter the building, creating a buildup of internal pressure that pushes upwards on the roof. This internal pressure, combined with the external wind forces, can significantly increase the risk of roof uplift and structural failure.

Wind Tunnel Effect and Debris Hazards:

Beyond the pressure concerns, opening windows creates a wind tunnel effect, allowing wind and debris to enter the building with greater force. This can turn everyday objects into dangerous projectiles, causing significant damage to the interior of your home and posing a serious threat to anyone inside.

Focus on Proper Roof Protection:

Instead of resorting to the myth of opening windows, focus on proactive measures to protect your roof during a hurricane:

  • Roof Inspections and Maintenance: Regularly inspect your roof for any loose shingles, damaged flashing, or other vulnerabilities. Address any issues promptly to ensure your roof is in optimal condition to withstand a storm.
  • Hurricane Straps and Reinforcements: Consider reinforcing your roof structure with hurricane straps or clips. These metal connectors help to secure the roof to the walls of your home, increasing its resistance to uplift forces.
  • Impact-Resistant Roofing Materials: If you live in a hurricane-prone area, consider investing in impact-resistant roofing materials, such as metal or asphalt shingles specifically designed to withstand high winds and flying debris.

Hurricane Mythbusters: Storm Surge is More Than Just a Big Wave

When hurricanes threaten coastal communities, the term “storm surge” frequently arises, often accompanied by misconceptions about its nature and dangers. One common myth portrays storm surge as simply a large wave crashing onto the shore. However, the reality of storm surge is far more complex and menacing, posing a significant threat to life and property.

Understanding the Mechanics of Storm Surge:

Storm surge is not a singular wave but rather an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm’s winds pushing seawater towards the coast. As a hurricane approaches land, its powerful winds act like a giant fan, shoving a massive volume of ocean water towards the shoreline. This surge of water can reach heights of several feet, inundating coastal areas far beyond the reach of normal waves.

Factors Influencing Storm Surge:

Several factors influence the severity of storm surge, including:

  • Hurricane Intensity: Stronger hurricanes with higher wind speeds generate more powerful storm surges.
  • Size and Shape of the Hurricane: Larger hurricanes with a broader wind field tend to produce more extensive storm surge.
  • Angle of Approach: The angle at which a hurricane approaches the coast influences the direction and height of the surge.
  • Coastal Topography: The shape and slope of the coastline play a crucial role in determining the extent of inundation. Low-lying areas and shallow coastal waters are particularly vulnerable to significant storm surge.

The Destructive Power of Storm Surge:

Storm surge is often the most destructive and deadly aspect of a hurricane. The forceful rush of water can inundate coastal communities, causing extensive flooding, structural damage, and erosion. Additionally, storm surge can exacerbate the impact of heavy rainfall, leading to even more severe flooding.

Beyond the Wave: Additional Threats:

The dangers of storm surge extend beyond the immediate threat of flooding:

  • Strong Currents: The surging water creates powerful currents that can sweep away people, vehicles, and debris.
  • Contaminated Water: Floodwaters from storm surge can be contaminated with sewage, chemicals, and other hazardous materials.
  • Debris Impact: The force of the surge can carry large debris inland, causing significant damage to structures and posing a danger to anyone in its path.

Hurricane Mythbusters: Inland Areas are NOT Immune to Hurricane Impacts

When hurricanes threaten landfall, the focus often centers on coastal communities bracing for the brunt of the storm. This leaves many inland residents with a false sense of security, believing they are immune to the impacts of these powerful weather systems. However, the reality is that hurricanes pose significant threats far beyond the coastline, impacting communities hundreds of miles inland.

Wind Hazards Extend Far Inland:

While hurricanes are known for their intense winds near the eyewall, these winds can maintain significant strength as the storm moves inland. Hurricane-force wind gusts can extend hundreds of miles from the center of the storm, causing widespread damage to trees, power lines, and structures. Inland areas, often less accustomed to such extreme winds, can be particularly vulnerable to wind-related damage.

Flooding: A Widespread Threat:

Hurricanes are prolific rain producers, capable of dumping torrential amounts of precipitation over vast areas. As the storm moves inland and interacts with geographical features, such as mountains and hills, the rainfall can intensify, leading to flash floods, river flooding, and mudslides. Inland communities situated near rivers, streams, and low-lying areas are particularly susceptible to these flood hazards.

Tornadoes: A Hidden Danger:

Hurricanes often spawn tornadoes, particularly in the right-front quadrant of the storm. These tornadoes can occur well inland, sometimes hundreds of miles from the coast, posing a significant threat to communities not directly in the path of the hurricane’s core.

Indirect Impacts and Cascading Effects:

Beyond the direct wind, flooding, and tornado threats, hurricanes can trigger a cascade of indirect impacts on inland areas:

  • Power Outages: Widespread wind damage to power lines can lead to prolonged power outages, disrupting essential services and daily life.
  • Transportation Disruptions: Flooding and debris can make roads impassable, hindering transportation and emergency response efforts.
  • Economic Disruptions: Business closures, agricultural losses, and supply chain disruptions can have significant economic consequences for inland communities.

Hurricane Mythbusters: Lower Category Doesn’t Mean Lower Risk

As hurricanes approach landfall, their categorization often becomes a focal point of public attention. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which ranks hurricanes from Category 1 to 5 based on wind speed, provides a valuable tool for understanding potential wind damage. However, a common misconception arises when hurricanes weaken below Category 3: the assumption that lower category storms pose minimal threats. This misconception can lead to complacency and underestimation of the dangers associated with these still-powerful weather systems.

Beyond Wind Speed: A Multifaceted Threat:

While wind speed is a crucial factor in hurricane categorization and potential damage, it’s essential to recognize that hurricanes are multifaceted threats. Even as a hurricane weakens below Category 3, it can still unleash a range of hazards, including:

  • Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Hurricanes are prolific rain producers, capable of causing significant inland flooding regardless of their wind speed category. Slow-moving or stalled hurricanes can dump torrential amounts of rainfall over a region, leading to flash floods, river flooding, and mudslides.
  • Storm Surge: The storm surge, a rise in seawater level pushed ashore by the hurricane’s winds, remains a significant threat even as wind speeds decrease. The height and extent of storm surge depend on various factors, including the size and track of the hurricane, coastal topography, and the timing of tides.
  • Tornadoes: Hurricanes can spawn tornadoes, regardless of their category, particularly in the right-front quadrant of the storm. These tornadoes can pose a significant threat to communities both near the coast and further inland.

Case Studies: Lower Category, High Impact:

History provides numerous examples of lower-category hurricanes causing significant damage and loss of life:

  • Hurricane Harvey (2017): Despite weakening to a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, Harvey stalled over Texas, producing catastrophic flooding and becoming one of the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.
  • Hurricane Florence (2018): Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane but caused extensive flooding and damage in the Carolinas due to its slow movement and record-breaking rainfall.

Advancing Severe Weather Detection: The Rise of Dual Polarization Radar in the US

Posted on by Collective Weather

Weather radar has always been a cornerstone of meteorological observation and forecasting. Yet, traditional radar systems, while effective, were limited in their ability to decipher the complexities within storms, often leaving meteorologists with an incomplete picture. The advent of dual polarization radar technology marked a paradigm shift, ushering in an era of enhanced precision and understanding in severe weather detection and warnings.

Understanding the Dual Pol Advantage:

Traditional weather radars transmit and receive horizontally polarized waves, meaning the waves vibrate parallel to the ground. This provides information about the location and intensity of precipitation but lacks the ability to discern the size, shape, and variety of particles within a storm. Dual polarization technology builds upon this foundation by introducing a second dimension – vertical polarization. By transmitting and receiving both horizontally and vertically polarized waves, dual pol radar paints a more comprehensive picture of the storm environment.

Transforming Tornado Detection:

One of the most significant benefits of dual pol technology lies in its ability to enhance tornado detection and warnings. Traditional radar could identify areas of rotation within a storm, suggestive of a possible tornado. However, confirming the presence of a tornado often relied on visual sightings or the detection of debris lofted into the air, both of which could be unreliable or delayed.

Dual pol radar brought a game-changing advantage: the ability to detect debris fields associated with tornadoes. When a tornado is on the ground, it lifts a variety of objects – from tree limbs and building materials to vehicles and even larger structures. These objects scatter radar waves differently than raindrops or hailstones, creating a distinct signature that dual pol radar can identify. This capability allows meteorologists to confirm the presence of a tornado with greater confidence and issue more timely and accurate warnings, potentially saving lives.

Sharper Images, Clearer Insights:

Beyond debris detection, dual pol technology enhances the overall resolution and clarity of radar data. By analyzing the way horizontally and vertically polarized waves interact with precipitation particles, meteorologists can estimate the size and shape of raindrops, hailstones, and snowflakes. This information provides valuable insights into the intensity of precipitation, the potential for flooding, and the type of winter weather expected.

A Nationwide Upgrade: The Dual Pol Rollout:

Recognizing the transformative potential of dual polarization technology, the National Weather Service (NWS) embarked on an ambitious endeavor to upgrade its entire network of radars across the United States. The rollout, initiated in 2010 and completed in 2013, involved retrofitting existing radars with dual pol capabilities, ensuring comprehensive coverage for the nation.

This nationwide upgrade has yielded substantial improvements in severe weather detection and warnings. Studies have shown a significant increase in lead times for tornado warnings and a reduction in false alarms, underscoring the life-saving potential of this technology.

Beyond Tornadoes: A Multifaceted Tool:

While the impact of dual pol radar on tornado warnings has been profound, its benefits extend far beyond this realm. The technology has proven invaluable for:

  • Improved Rainfall Estimates: By providing more accurate measurements of rainfall amounts, dual pol data enhances flash flood warnings and supports better water resource management.
  • Winter Weather Monitoring: The ability to differentiate between various types of frozen precipitation, such as snow, sleet, and freezing rain, leads to more precise winter storm forecasts and improved road condition monitoring.
  • Aviation Safety: Dual pol radar aids in identifying hazardous weather phenomena for aviation, including icing conditions and turbulence, contributing to safer air travel.

Hurricane Andrew: A South Florida Nightmare – August 24, 1992

Posted on by Collective Weather

The morning of August 24, 1992, dawned bright and clear in South Florida, but the calm was a cruel deception. Lurking in the Atlantic, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 monster, was on a collision course. By the time the sun set, Andrew would etch its name in history as one of the most destructive hurricanes to ever strike the United States, leaving behind a trail of devastation that would take years to rebuild.

Andrew’s journey of destruction began in the eastern Atlantic as a tropical wave, gradually gaining strength as it moved westward. By August 22nd, it had intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 175 mph. After pummeling the northern Bahamas, Andrew set its sights on South Florida. Despite weakening slightly to a Category 4, Andrew remained a formidable force, boasting winds of 145 mph as it approached the coast.

Around 5 AM on August 24th, the hurricane’s eyewall slammed into Elliott Key, just south of Miami. The anemometer at the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables clocked a peak gust of 177 mph before being destroyed by the wind. Homes were ripped apart, boats tossed ashore like toys, and palm trees stripped bare. The storm surge, a wall of water pushed ashore by the hurricane, inundated coastal areas, flooding streets and homes.

The devastation wasn’t confined to the immediate coastline. As Andrew moved inland, its powerful winds tore through Homestead, Florida City, and Kendall, leaving behind scenes reminiscent of a war zone. Homestead Air Force Base, located near the eye of the storm, was virtually destroyed, with aircraft hangars crumpled and fighter jets tossed about like paper airplanes. Mobile home parks were obliterated, shopping centers reduced to rubble, and thousands of homes left uninhabitable. The darkness of the early morning, combined with the howling winds and driving rain, created an atmosphere of pure terror for those trapped in the storm’s path.

Andrew’s destructive power was fueled by a combination of factors. The warm waters of the Atlantic provided ample energy for the storm to intensify. Additionally, a lack of wind shear, which can disrupt a hurricane’s organization, allowed Andrew to maintain its strength. The storm’s compact size, while limiting the geographic scope of its impact, concentrated its destructive winds over a smaller area, resulting in catastrophic damage. The pressure readings recorded in Homestead were some of the lowest ever observed in a hurricane striking the U.S. mainland, indicating the storm’s incredible intensity.

The aftermath of Hurricane Andrew revealed a landscape of unimaginable destruction. Over 125,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, leaving thousands homeless. Millions were left without power, and the economic losses reached an estimated $26 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history at the time. The storm exposed flaws in building codes and emergency preparedness, prompting significant changes in both areas.

The human cost of the disaster was equally staggering. In Florida alone, 44 deaths were directly attributed to the hurricane, with another 15 indirectly caused by the storm. Thousands more were injured, and the psychological scars left by the trauma of the event were deep and long-lasting.

While the physical scars of Hurricane Andrew have faded with time, the memories of its devastating impact remain vivid for those who lived through it. The storm serves as a stark reminder of the destructive power of nature and the importance of respecting and preparing for its fury. The lessons learned from Andrew have led to improved building codes, better emergency response systems, and a heightened awareness of hurricane preparedness, ultimately saving countless lives in subsequent storms.

Adjusted for inflation, the estimated $26 billion in damages translates to a staggering $55.6 billion in today’s dollars, underscoring the immense financial impact of the storm. This figure encompasses a wide range of losses, including:

  • Residential and Commercial Property Damage: Andrew obliterated thousands of homes and businesses, leaving behind a landscape of rubble. Rebuilding costs, coupled with lost economic activity, contributed significantly to the overall financial toll.
  • Infrastructure Damage: The storm inflicted severe damage on critical infrastructure, including power grids, communication systems, and transportation networks. Repairing and restoring these essential services added to the overall cost.
  • Agricultural Losses: The agricultural sector, particularly in South Florida, suffered extensive losses due to crop damage and destruction of farming infrastructure.
  • Insurance Payouts: Insurance companies faced massive payouts to cover property damage claims, leading to increased premiums and financial strain within the industry.

Timeline of Hurricane Andrew:

  • August 14, 1992: A tropical wave emerges off the coast of Africa, marking the genesis of what would become Hurricane Andrew.
  • August 16-22, 1992: The tropical wave strengthens as it tracks westward across the Atlantic, eventually becoming a tropical storm and then rapidly intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane by August 22nd.
  • August 23, 1992: Andrew makes landfall in the northern Bahamas as a Category 4 hurricane, causing significant damage.
  • August 24, 1992 (Early Morning): Hurricane Andrew makes landfall near Elliott Key, Florida, as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph, causing catastrophic damage in South Florida, including Homestead, Florida City, and Kendall.
  • August 24-26, 1992: Andrew weakens as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico but regains strength before making a second landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in Louisiana, causing further damage.
  • August 26-28, 1992: Andrew weakens into a tropical depression as it moves inland and dissipates over the eastern United States.

20 Game-Changing Weather Apps You Can’t Afford to Miss

Posted on by Collective Weather

In today’s world, being prepared for changing weather conditions is crucial. Fortunately, there are numerous weather apps available that can help you stay informed and safe. Here are 20 game-changing weather apps you can’t afford to miss:

  • Dark Sky
    This app is known for its accurate hyperlocal forecasts and beautiful radar maps. It provides down-to-the-minute updates and alerts for precipitation, temperature, and severe weather events, making it a reliable choice for staying on top of changing weather conditions.
  • Hail No
    Defend yourself from hailstorms with Hail No, the first hail app to provide real-time tracking and alert notifications. See where the hail is, create a defensive radius around any location, and get automatic alerts. Hail No provides access to the National Severe Storms Laboratory hail algorithm, the most accurate available, ensuring you’re always aware of potential hail threats.
    Apple: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hail-no/id1469253867
  • WeatherBug
    WeatherBug is a comprehensive weather app that offers real-time weather data, radar maps, and severe weather alerts. It also includes features like pollen and air quality forecasts, making it a great choice for those with allergies or respiratory issues. Stay informed about changing weather conditions and potential health impacts with WeatherBug.
  • Tornado Vision
    See severe weather with augmented reality! Tornado Vision can help you see tornadoes hiding in the rain or at night. Simply point your phone at any severe storm, and you’ll get a heads-up display on what is happening inside the storm. This groundbreaking weather technology provides information on the chance of a tornado, hail size, wind speed, and more, right on your screen.
    iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tornado-vision/id1469550036
    Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tornadovision.app.presentation&hl=en&gl=US&pli=1
  • RadarScope
    Designed for weather enthusiasts and professionals, RadarScope is a powerful radar app that provides high-resolution radar data, storm tracking, and advanced analysis tools. Dive deep into weather data and gain a comprehensive understanding of weather patterns with this feature-rich app.
  • Predict Now
    Predict Now is a powerful weather app that provides hyperlocal forecasts and real-time alerts for severe weather events. With its user-friendly interface and advanced features, you can stay ahead of the game and plan your activities accordingly, ensuring you’re always prepared for changing weather conditions.
    Apple: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/predict-now/id1481839520
  • NOAA Weather Radar Live
    This free app provides access to real-time weather radar data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Stay informed about severe weather events in your area with up-to-date radar information from a trusted source.
  • Weather Underground
    Weather Underground is a comprehensive weather app that offers hyperlocal forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts. It also includes a community feature that allows users to share weather observations and photos, creating a collaborative weather-tracking experience.
  • AccuWeather
    AccuWeather is a popular weather app known for its accurate forecasts and user-friendly interface. It provides detailed weather information, including hourly and daily forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts, ensuring you have all the information you need to plan your day.
  • The Weather Channel
    The Weather Channel app is a reliable source for weather information, offering forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts. It also includes features like hurricane tracking and ski resort conditions, making it a versatile choice for various weather-related activities.
  • Clime: NOAA Weather Radar
    Clime: NOAA Weather Radar is a free app that provides access to real-time weather radar data from NOAA. Stay informed about severe weather events in your area with this simple yet effective app.
  • MyRadar Weather Radar
    MyRadar Weather Radar is a powerful app that offers high-resolution radar data, severe weather alerts, and customizable settings. Tailor the app to your specific needs and get a detailed view of weather conditions in your area.
  • Windy
    Windy is a unique weather app that focuses on wind forecasts and patterns. It provides detailed wind maps, as well as forecasts for temperature, precipitation, and other weather conditions, making it an excellent choice for outdoor enthusiasts and those interested in wind-related activities.
  • Weather Mate
    Weather Mate is a comprehensive weather app that offers hyperlocal forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts. It also includes features like air quality and pollen forecasts, making it a great choice for those with allergies or respiratory issues. Stay informed about weather conditions and potential health impacts with this all-in-one app.
  • Carrot Weather
    Carrot Weather is a unique weather app that combines accurate forecasts with a quirky and humorous personality. It provides detailed weather information, including hourly and daily forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts, all delivered with a touch of humor to make weather tracking more enjoyable.
  • Storm Radar
    Storm Radar is a powerful app that provides real-time radar data, severe weather alerts, and storm tracking capabilities. Stay informed about severe weather events in your area and track storms with this comprehensive app.
  • Weather Live
    Weather Live is a comprehensive weather app that offers hyperlocal forecasts, radar maps, and severe weather alerts. It also includes features like air quality and pollen forecasts, making it a great choice for those with allergies or respiratory issues. Stay informed about weather conditions and potential health impacts with this versatile app.
  • Flowx
    Flowx is a unique weather app that focuses on visualizing weather patterns and forecasts. It provides detailed weather information, including wind patterns, precipitation, and temperature, in a visually stunning format, making it an excellent choice for those who appreciate beautiful data visualization.
  • Weather Maps
    Weather Maps is a powerful app that provides detailed weather maps and forecasts for various weather conditions, including precipitation, temperature, wind, and more. Get a comprehensive view of weather patterns with this data-rich app.
  • Weather Radar by ICM
    Weather Radar by ICM is a free app that provides access to real-time weather radar data from various sources, including NOAA and Environment Canada. Stay informed about severe weather events in your area with this simple yet effective app.

The Ultimate Guide to Hurricane Forecasting

Posted on by Collective Weather

Part 1: Understanding the Basics of Hurricanes

1.1 What is a hurricane?
A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters. Hurricanes are characterized by a low-pressure center, high winds, and heavy rainfall. In the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the eastern North Pacific Ocean, these storms are called hurricanes. In other parts of the world, they may be referred to as typhoons or tropical cyclones, depending on their location.

1.2 How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes form when specific atmospheric and oceanic conditions are met. The key factors that contribute to hurricane formation include:
a. Warm ocean water (at least 26.5°C or 79.7°F) to a depth of about 50 meters
b. Atmospheric instability, which allows the warm, moist air to rise and form thunderstorms
c. Sufficient Coriolis force, which causes the storm to rotate (this force is minimal near the equator)
d. A pre-existing disturbance, such as a tropical wave or a low-pressure system
e. Low wind shear, which allows the storm to maintain its vertical structure

When these conditions are present, the warm, moist air rises, creating an area of low pressure near the surface. As the air continues to rise, it cools and condenses, forming clouds and thunderstorms. The rotation of the Earth and the Coriolis force cause the storm to spin, and as the system becomes more organized, it can intensify into a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane.

1.3 The life cycle of a hurricane
Hurricanes typically go through four stages of development:
a. Tropical disturbance: An area of low pressure with thunderstorms, but no organized circulation
b. Tropical depression: A low-pressure system with sustained winds of up to 38 mph (61 km/h)
c. Tropical storm: A more organized system with sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h)
d. Hurricane: A well-defined, rotating storm with sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher

Once a hurricane makes landfall or moves over cooler waters, it begins to weaken and eventually dissipates.

1.4 Categories of hurricane intensity
Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their maximum sustained wind speeds, using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

  • Category 1: 74-95 mph (119-153 km/h)
  • Category 2: 96-110 mph (154-177 km/h)
  • Category 3: 111-129 mph (178-208 km/h)
  • Category 4: 130-156 mph (209-251 km/h)
  • Category 5: 157 mph (252 km/h) or higher

It is important to note that the Saffir-Simpson scale only measures wind speed and does not account for the potential damage caused by storm surge, rainfall, or other factors. Lower-category hurricanes can still cause significant damage and loss of life, particularly due to flooding and storm surge.

Part 2: Data Collection and Analysis

2.1 Observing and measuring hurricanes
To accurately forecast hurricanes, scientists rely on various data collection methods to observe and measure the storms’ characteristics and the surrounding environment. The main tools used for this purpose are:

2.1.1 Satellite imagery
Satellites provide a comprehensive view of hurricanes from space, allowing forecasters to monitor their development, track their movement, and estimate their intensity. Visible and infrared satellite images help identify the storm’s structure, size, and cloud patterns. Microwave imagery can penetrate through clouds, providing information about the storm’s internal structure and rainfall rates.

2.1.2 Aircraft reconnaissance
Specially equipped aircraft, such as the U.S. Air Force Reserve’s Hurricane Hunters, fly directly into hurricanes to collect valuable data. These aircraft measure wind speed, air pressure, temperature, and humidity at various altitudes within and around the storm. They also deploy instruments called dropsondes, which measure atmospheric conditions as they descend to the ocean surface.

2.1.3 Buoys and weather stations
Buoys and weather stations in the ocean and on land provide essential data about surface conditions, such as wind speed, air pressure, and sea surface temperature. These measurements help forecasters understand the storm’s interaction with its environment and assess its potential for intensification.

2.2 Analyzing atmospheric and oceanic conditions
In addition to directly observing hurricanes, forecasters analyze various atmospheric and oceanic conditions that influence hurricane development and behavior. Some of the key factors considered are:

2.2.1 Sea surface temperature
Warm ocean water, typically above 26.5°C (79.7°F), is essential for hurricane formation and intensification. Forecasters monitor sea surface temperatures using satellite data and buoy measurements to identify areas that are conducive to hurricane development.

2.2.2 Wind shear
Wind shear refers to the change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. High wind shear can disrupt the vertical structure of a hurricane, causing it to weaken or dissipate. Forecasters assess wind shear using satellite data, weather balloon observations, and numerical weather models.

2.2.3 Atmospheric pressure
Hurricanes are characterized by low air pressure at their center. Forecasters monitor changes in atmospheric pressure using barometers on buoys, ships, and land-based weather stations. A rapid drop in pressure often indicates that a storm is intensifying.

2.3 Historical data and trends
Analyzing historical hurricane data and trends is crucial for improving our understanding of these storms and refining forecasting techniques. Scientists study past hurricane seasons, landfall locations, intensities, and tracks to identify patterns and relationships with atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This information helps forecasters develop statistical models and analog forecasts based on similar historical situations. Additionally, examining long-term trends in hurricane activity can provide insights into the potential impacts of climate change on hurricane frequency and intensity.

By collecting and analyzing a wide range of data from multiple sources, forecasters can build a comprehensive picture of a hurricane’s current state and its likely future behavior. This information forms the foundation for the development and application of forecasting models and techniques, which will be discussed in the next part of this guide.

Part 3: Forecasting Models and Techniques

Forecasting hurricanes involves using various models and techniques to predict the track, intensity, and potential impacts of these storms. Meteorologists and researchers rely on a combination of statistical and dynamical models to generate forecasts.

3.1 Statistical models
Statistical models, also known as statistical-dynamical models, use historical data on past hurricanes and their relationships with environmental variables to predict the behavior of current storms. These models consider factors such as sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind shear to estimate the likelihood of hurricane formation, intensification, and movement. Some examples of statistical models include:
a. Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)
b. Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)
c. Rapid Intensification Index (RII)

Statistical models are generally less computationally intensive than dynamical models and can provide quick guidance on hurricane behavior. However, they may not capture the full complexity of hurricane dynamics and can be limited by the quality and quantity of historical data.

3.2 Dynamical models
Dynamical models, also called numerical weather prediction models, use mathematical equations to simulate the physical processes that govern hurricane formation and evolution. These models divide the atmosphere and ocean into grid cells and solve equations that describe the motion of air and water, as well as the transfer of heat and moisture. Dynamical models can be further categorized into two types:

3.2.1 Global models
Global models simulate the entire Earth’s atmosphere and oceans, providing a comprehensive view of the large-scale environmental conditions that influence hurricane behavior. Some examples of global models include:
a. Global Forecast System (GFS)
b. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
c. Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)

Global models have a relatively coarse spatial resolution, typically ranging from 10 to 50 kilometers between grid points. They are useful for identifying large-scale patterns and long-term trends but may not capture the finer details of hurricane structure and intensity.

3.2.2 Regional models
Regional models, also known as limited-area models or mesoscale models, focus on a specific region of interest and provide higher-resolution simulations of hurricane behavior. These models use boundary conditions from global models but can resolve smaller-scale features such as hurricane eye structure and rainbands. Some examples of regional models include:
a. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model
b. Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic (HMON) Model
c. Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Model

Regional models typically have a spatial resolution of 1 to 10 kilometers, allowing for more detailed predictions of hurricane track, intensity, and structure. However, they are computationally expensive and may have shorter lead times compared to global models.

3.3 Ensemble forecasting
Ensemble forecasting involves running multiple simulations of a hurricane using slightly different initial conditions, model physics, or model types. By generating a range of possible outcomes, ensemble forecasting helps quantify the uncertainty in hurricane predictions and provides probabilistic guidance on hurricane track, intensity, and impacts. Ensemble forecasting can be applied to both statistical and dynamical models.

3.4 Interpreting model output
Interpreting the output from hurricane forecasting models requires expertise in meteorology and an understanding of the strengths and limitations of each model. Forecasters analyze various model outputs, such as track plots, intensity graphs, and wind field maps, to assess the likely evolution of a hurricane. They also consider the consistency between different models and the overall pattern of model predictions to generate the official forecast.

Hurricane forecasting checklist:

Sea Surface Temperature (SST):

Look for SSTs of at least 26.5°C (79.7°F) extending to a depth of about 50 meters.
Higher SSTs provide more energy for the storm to develop and intensify.

Atmospheric Instability:

Check for a moist, unstable atmosphere that allows warm air to rise easily.
Look for a deep layer of warm, humid air extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere.
Evaluate the presence of convective available potential energy (CAPE) to support thunderstorm development.

Low Wind Shear:

Analyze the vertical wind shear, which is the change in wind speed or direction with height.
Ideal conditions for hurricane development have wind shear values less than 10 knots (11.5 mph or 18.5 km/h) between the lower and upper troposphere.
High wind shear can disrupt the storm’s circulation and prevent it from intensifying.

Moisture Content:

Assess the presence of a moist environment, particularly in the mid-troposphere (around 5 km or 3 miles altitude).
High relative humidity (greater than 70%) in this layer is conducive to hurricane development.

Pre-existing Disturbance:

Identify any pre-existing disturbances, such as tropical waves, low-pressure systems, or remnants of previous storms.
These disturbances can act as seed areas for hurricane development if other conditions are favorable.

Official resources:

NOAA GOES Image Viewer: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
NASA GOES Satellite Imagery: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/goes/main/index.html
CIRA GOES Imagery: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

Observations:

NOAA National Data Buoy Center: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center: https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations
NOAA Hurricane Hunters: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/about_hrd/HRD-P3_program.html

Forecasting:

NOAA National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NOAA Environmental Modeling Center: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NOAA Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/

Advisories:

NOAA National Hurricane Center Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
NOAA National Weather Service: https://www.weather.gov/
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency): https://www.fema.gov/

Flood Maps:

FEMA Flood Map Service Center: https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home
NOAA National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Inundation Maps: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/inundation/
USGS (United States Geological Survey) Flood Event Viewer: https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/

Forecast model links:

1. Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ – Provides a wide range of model data, satellite imagery, and analysis tools

2. Mike’s Weather Page: https://spaghettimodels.com/ – Offers a collection of spaghetti models, forecast discussions, and other tools

3. Crown Weather Services: https://crownweather.com/ – Includes detailed forecast discussions, model data, and a focus on the Atlantic basin

4. Cyclocane: https://www.cyclocane.com/ – Features an interactive map with various model tracks and satellite imagery

5. Hurricane Track: https://hurricanetrack.com/ – Provides a mix of professional analysis, model data, and user-friendly explanations

6. Severe Weather Europe: https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/ – Covers tropical weather worldwide, with a focus on European interests

7. Force Thirteen: https://www.force-13.com/ – Offers live coverage, model analysis, and a community-driven approach to hurricane tracking

8. Instant Weather Maps: https://www.instantweathermaps.com/ – Provides a variety of weather maps, including tropical cyclone data and model outputs

9. Windy: https://www.windy.com/ – An interactive weather visualization platform with various forecast models and hurricane tracking features

10. NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML): https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/graphics_sub_pages/models.html – While part of an official agency, AOML provides a comprehensive collection of model data and graphics

The Future of Weather Forecasting: How AI is Revolutionizing Meteorology

Posted on by Collective Weather

One of the key ways AI is being used in weather forecasting is through machine learning algorithms. These algorithms can analyze vast amounts of historical weather data, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation, to identify patterns and make predictions about future weather events. By continuously learning from new data, these algorithms can improve their accuracy over time, leading to more reliable forecasts.

Another area where AI is making a significant impact is in the interpretation of weather satellite imagery. Traditional methods of analyzing satellite data can be time-consuming and prone to human error. However, AI-powered systems can quickly and accurately identify weather patterns and anomalies in satellite images, providing meteorologists with valuable insights into developing weather systems.

AI is also being used to improve the resolution and accuracy of weather models. By incorporating machine learning techniques, researchers can create more detailed and precise models that can simulate weather conditions down to the neighborhood level. This level of granularity can be particularly useful for predicting the impact of severe weather events, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, on specific communities.

In addition to improving the accuracy of weather forecasts, AI is also helping to make them more accessible and user-friendly. Many weather apps and websites now use AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants to provide personalized weather information and alerts based on a user’s location and preferences. This can help individuals and businesses make more informed decisions about their daily activities and operations.

Title: The Future Potential of AI in Weather Forecasting: Building on Google’s GraphCast

Google’s GraphCast represents a significant advancement in the field of weather forecasting, utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to deliver highly accurate 10-day weather predictions in a fraction of the time required by traditional methods. This groundbreaking technology not only improves the accuracy and efficiency of weather forecasts but also demonstrates the potential for AI to revolutionize the field of meteorology.

One of the most promising aspects of GraphCast is its ability to identify and predict extreme weather events, such as cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and heat waves, with greater accuracy and lead time than traditional forecasting models. This early warning capability could prove invaluable in saving lives and minimizing the impact of severe weather on communities. As AI continues to advance, it is likely that models like GraphCast will become even more adept at detecting and predicting these extreme events, allowing for better preparedness and response.

Looking to the future, the potential applications of AI in weather forecasting are vast. By building upon the foundation laid by GraphCast, researchers and meteorologists could develop even more sophisticated models that incorporate additional data sources, such as satellite imagery, radar, and weather station observations. These enhanced models could provide even greater accuracy and granularity in weather predictions, allowing for more localized and personalized forecasts. Additionally, AI could be used to develop long-term climate models, helping scientists better understand and predict the impacts of climate change on weather patterns and extreme events. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges posed by a changing climate, the insights provided by AI-powered weather and climate models will become increasingly critical in informing policy decisions and guiding adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Despite the many benefits of AI in weather forecasting, there are also some challenges and limitations to consider. One concern is the potential for AI systems to perpetuate biases or errors in historical weather data, leading to inaccurate predictions. Another challenge is the need for large amounts of high-quality data to train and validate AI models, which can be difficult and expensive to obtain.

Despite these challenges, the future of weather forecasting looks bright thanks to the continued advancement of AI technologies. As more data becomes available and AI algorithms become more sophisticated, we can expect to see even more accurate and detailed weather forecasts in the years to come. This will not only help us better prepare for and respond to severe weather events but also enable us to make more informed decisions about everything from agriculture to transportation to energy production.

A History of Storm Chasers and Storm Chasing

Posted on by Collective Weather

Storm Chasing: The Thrilling Pursuit of Nature’s Fury

Since the dawn of human civilization, storms have captivated and terrified us in equal measure. However, it wasn’t until the 20th century that a group of intrepid individuals began actively pursuing these meteorological marvels, giving birth to the exhilarating and often dangerous field of storm chasing.

Before the advent of modern storm chasing, the study of tornadoes and severe weather was a far cry from the sophisticated pursuit we know today. In the 1800s, the scientific understanding of these powerful natural phenomena was still in its infancy, and the concept of actively seeking out storms was virtually unheard of.

During this time, the primary sources of information about tornadoes were the accounts of those who had witnessed them firsthand. These eyewitness reports, often filled with vivid descriptions and harrowing tales of survival, laid the foundation for our early understanding of severe weather. One of the most famous accounts from this era is that of John Park Finley, a sergeant in the U.S. Army Signal Corps who became fascinated with tornadoes after surviving a close encounter in 1882.

Finley’s experience sparked a lifelong passion for studying severe weather, and he went on to become one of the most influential figures in the field. In 1884, he published the first comprehensive study of tornadoes in the United States, titled “Report on the Character of Six Hundred Tornadoes.” This groundbreaking work, which included detailed descriptions and classifications of tornadoes, served as a cornerstone for future research.

Despite the efforts of individuals like Finley, the scientific community of the 1800s was largely skeptical of the idea that tornadoes could be studied in a systematic way. Many believed that these powerful storms were too unpredictable and chaotic to be understood, and the notion of actively pursuing them was considered foolhardy at best.

However, this began to change in the late 1800s, as advances in technology and communication made it easier to track and study severe weather. The invention of the telegraph allowed for the rapid dissemination of weather reports, and the establishment of a national weather service in 1870 marked a significant step forward in the organized study of meteorology.

In the heart of Oklahoma, at Tinker Air Force Base, a groundbreaking event took place on March 25, 1948, that would forever change the course of severe weather forecasting. On this fateful day, a group of Air Force meteorologists, led by the visionary Captain Robert C. Miller and Major Ernest J. Fawbush, issued the world’s first tornado forecast. This remarkable achievement marked a turning point in our understanding of these powerful storms and paved the way for the development of modern storm chasing and severe weather research.

The events leading up to this historic moment were nothing short of extraordinary. Miller and Fawbush, both brilliant meteorologists, had been tasked with investigating the devastating tornado that struck Tinker Air Force Base on March 20, 1948, causing significant damage and injuring several personnel. As they pored over weather data and eyewitness accounts, the two men began to notice patterns and conditions that seemed to precede the formation of tornadoes. With a powerful cold front approaching and similar atmospheric conditions to the March 20th tornado in place, Miller and Fawbush made a bold decision: they would issue a tornado forecast for the following day.

The forecast, which was met with skepticism by some of their colleagues, proved to be remarkably accurate. On March 25, 1948, a tornado touched down just miles from Tinker Air Force Base, causing damage but no fatalities thanks to the advance warning provided by Miller and Fawbush’s forecast. This incredible success story quickly spread throughout the meteorological community, sparking a renewed interest in the study of tornadoes and severe weather. The Tinker Air Force Base breakthrough not only demonstrated the potential for tornado forecasting but also highlighted the critical importance of understanding these powerful storms. As a result, the field of storm chasing began to evolve, with a growing number of researchers and enthusiasts dedicating themselves to unlocking the secrets of nature’s fury.

The roots of storm chasing can be traced back to the 1950s when a handful of weather enthusiasts, armed with little more than their curiosity and a few rudimentary instruments, ventured out to observe storms up close. Among these early pioneers was David Hoadley, widely regarded as the father of storm chasing. Hoadley’s fascination with severe weather led him to found the Storm Track magazine in 1977, which became a bible for aspiring storm chasers.

Another notable figure in the history of storm chasing is Neil Ward, a meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma. In the early 1970s, Ward began taking his students on field trips to observe severe weather, laying the groundwork for what would eventually become a thriving research community. His work paved the way for future scientists to study storms in their natural environment, leading to significant advancements in our understanding of severe weather.

The 1980s saw a surge in the popularity of storm chasing, thanks in part to the advent of Doppler radar and the increasing availability of portable video cameras. This decade also witnessed the rise of some of the most iconic figures in storm chasing history, including Tim Marshall, Gene Moore, and the late Al Moller. These individuals, along with many others, helped to establish storm chasing as a legitimate field of study and a thrilling pursuit for adventure seekers.

One of the most significant milestones in storm chasing history occurred on April 26, 1991, when a group of chasers, including Tim Marshall and Gene Moore, captured the first-ever footage of a tornado from start to finish. This groundbreaking achievement not only provided scientists with invaluable data but also sparked a renewed interest in storm chasing among the general public.

The 1990s and early 2000s saw storm chasing enter the mainstream, with the release of popular films like “Twister” and the rise of television shows dedicated to severe weather. This increased visibility brought with it a new generation of storm chasers, eager to experience the thrill of the chase and contribute to our understanding of these awe-inspiring natural phenomena.

As we entered the 21st century, storm chasing underwent a dramatic transformation, fueled by rapid advancements in technology, improved forecasting models, and a growing public fascination with severe weather. The period from 2000 to 2024 saw an explosion in the popularity of storm chasing, with a new generation of chasers pushing the boundaries of what was possible in the pursuit of nature’s fury.

One of the most significant developments during this time was the rise of high-resolution weather models and the increasing availability of mobile weather radar applications. These tools allowed storm chasers to track and predict the movement of storms with unprecedented accuracy, revolutionizing the way they approached their craft. No longer were chasers reliant on radio reports or their own intuition to guide them; now, they could access real-time data and detailed forecasts at the touch of a button. This technological leap forward not only made storm chasing safer and more efficient but also opened up the field to a wider range of participants, from seasoned researchers to amateur enthusiasts.

The 2000s also saw the emergence of a new breed of storm chaser, epitomized by the likes of Reed Timmer. Timmer, a meteorologist and extreme storm chaser, gained notoriety for his daring exploits and his custom-built armored vehicle, designed to withstand the forces of even the most violent tornadoes. His adventures, along with those of other extreme chasers, captured the public’s imagination and helped to fuel a growing interest in storm chasing as a recreational pursuit. The launch of the Discovery Channel’s “Storm Chasers” television series in 2007 further cemented the popularity of storm chasing, bringing the thrills and dangers of the chase into living rooms across the country.

Today, storm chasing remains a vital tool for researchers seeking to unravel the mysteries of severe weather. While technology has advanced significantly since the early days of Hoadley and Ward, the spirit of adventure and the desire to witness nature’s raw power continue to drive storm chasers to pursue their passion. As climate change contributes to an increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events, the work of these dedicated individuals has never been more important.